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Bitcoin ETF approval odds surge past 90% on positive regulatory feedback

1 Mins read
Bitcoin ETF approval odds

Two prominent financial analysts from Bloomberg have substantially upgraded their forecast about the probability of US Securities and Exchange Commission approving the first ever bitcoin exchange traded fund (ETF). Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas noted that the updated forms from issuers like BlackRock, Grayscale, and Fidelity seemed to address prior SEC concerns appropriately. This led him to increase his prediction of approval odds to over 90%, up from an earlier estimate of 90%. Similarly, Valkyrie Funds CEO Leah Wald also believed the filings constructively engaged with regulator feedback, signalling the applications were moving in the right direction to satisfy regulatory standards.

Crypto market views differ from analyst projections

Bitcoin ETF approval odds

While analysts remained optimistic about an approval, crypto market sentiment was more mixed. Participants on the Polymarket prediction platform tempered their expectations, lowering the aggregated odds of approval before January 15th to 85% from last week’s 90% level. This suggested that despite analyst expectations, some market players had doubts regulators would rule favourably so quickly. The divergence highlighted that while analysts assessed approval chances based on regulatory filings, market views incorporated broader uncertainty about the often-unpredictable regulatory process.

The outlook remains positive for eventual approval and ETF launch

Bitcoin ETF approval odds

Despite the dip in crypto market odds, the overall outlook stayed positive that the SEC would approve at least one application in the near future. Most analysts agreed a decision was likely before the end of January, either granting approval to launch the first US bitcoin ETF or requesting more changes from issuers. While the exact timing couldn’t be predicted, the widespread expectation was that continued engagement between issuers and regulators would eventually result in a successful spot bitcoin ETF offering investors regulated access to cryptocurrency gains. Once approved, the ETF was forecast to attract high inflows and mark a historic step for mainstreaming digital asset investment.

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Monique Morgan is a seasoned financial analyst and cryptocurrency expert, well-versed in blockchain technology. With a proven track record of success, she excels in identifying profitable opportunities within the dynamic crypto market. Through her articles, guides, and educational resources, Monique shares her valuable insights and knowledge, empowering traders to make informed decisions. Her keen eye for market patterns allows her to navigate the volatile crypto landscape with confidence, making her a sought-after contributor to the Ailtra platform. Stay tuned for Monique's expert advice and perspectives on the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrencies.
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